Sunday, February 10, 2008

Pro Barack Math

This is how Barack is going to win the nomination:
First, forget the Superdelegates. They're going to line up behind whoever wins the most real delegates. That means that you don't need 2025 delegates to win, you need... 1627, i.e. more than half the 3253 pledged delegates.

Current standings via
Obama 918
Hillary 885

So, Obama needs 709, Hillary needs 742.

The feeling is that Obama is going to do pretty well in all the states until Texas and Ohio (Mar 4). I don't mean 'feeling' as in the Obama momentum lead, I mean that the cynical view, that Obama wins caucus states and states with lots of African Americans, says he should do very well. Those states, Wanela, Potomac primary, etc. are a total of 447 pledged delegates, which is more than all the primaries in March (415) even though March includes Texas and Ohio.

So Obama will definitely be ahead in pledged delegates for the next three weeks... an eternity. And with the anti-superdelegate backlash underway (see Tad Devine's NYTimes Op-ed) Obama's lead in that group will get talked up. If he gets 2/3 of the after-Super-Tuesday delegates (~300), that will make it:

Obama 1218
Hillary 1033

Barack could easily get half of the next 415 delegates (Ohio / Texas / etc.). Why do I say that? Fewer states - more Barack time. Texas is a half-caucus, Ohio is rich in A-A's etc.

Obama 1425
Hillary 1241

Now, at this point, the superdelegates can swing it for Obama, but remember I already discounted them. At this point, Barack needs 202, Hillary needs 386 of the remaining 566 delegates. It's April, and I think momentum comes back into play in a big way.

How is this different from an analysis that says whoever's ahead will win if they get half the remaining votes?

1. Obama's lead in the elected delegates will finally get noticed.
2. Obama's lead in elected delegates will widen.
3. Obama's lead in elected delegates will persist until at least the beginning of April.

After two months of consistently being behind, with the realization of another month of being behidn before people were paying attention, I think Hillary finally crumbles.

1 comment:

ZSN said...

Update to numbers:
Obama 971
Clinton 915


Obama 1271 - striking distance w/ SD
Clinton 1062


O 1478
C 1270

At which point Obama needs 149, Clinton needs 358

Is Obama likely to pick up that 149 before April? Probably not since I'm being fairly generous. But is he in much better shape? Of course.