Sunday, August 31, 2008

Focus Group of Two

Punkideas and the Cavendish have both recommended the DailyKos list of things wrong with Sarah Palin. I resist digging up too much dirt on her for the simple reason that under fair questioning, she will fold like Ted Stevens's reasoning.

Cav wonders whether we shouldn't see more of a convention / Palin bounce. The tracking polls released Saturday are a three-day composition of Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and show a two point improvement for Obama compared to T-W-R. I would say that's a big bounce from the Obama speech. My guess would be that most people reacted to the Palin pick with curiousity and a slight "thank G-d he didn't pick Romney," so that effect is muted. It my high-information-Feiler- Faster self over 24 hours to get into panic mode (for the country, not the campaign), so the public level backlash could take until next Thursday (i.e. after VP talk nite in St. Paul). Becasue of the overlapping convention bounces, we may never see a specific 'Palin effect' in the polls.

Evidence of McCain buyer's remorse? It will appear in the form of shrinking Palins on the campaign literature. Thus, the real 'Palin Effect' may occur when people step into the voting booth, are reminded in evenly sized type that if McCain doesn't make it, she'll be vice president, and then punch for the other guy.

What are the odds of an OMGWTFBBQ moment, i.e. a Meiers switch, wherin we spend all week criticizing an obviously unqualified token, saying, "gosh I wish McCain would select someone qualified," and then when he does we're forced to accept them, no matter how conservative, like Alito? I think those odds are good.* I would welcome a switch, because no matter how whackadoodle a vice president he picks, John McCain has about a 50% chance of being the next president. If you're politically opposed to McCain, then you say A: What does it say about him if he thinks she's qualified? B: If he switches, how trustworthy can he be?

*: McCain is steadfast on some primciples, like staying in Iraq forever, but he has switched some principles, like offshore drilling. He picked Palin for political reasons, he'll ditch her for political reasons.

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